By The South Asia Editorial Desk
South Asia may be heading into a wetter and warmer future, according to new forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The Geneva-based agency’s recent reports suggest that the region could experience above-normal rainfall during the upcoming monsoon season – continuing a broader pattern of climate variability shaped by global warming.
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update for May to July 2025 projects that most parts of South and Southeast Asia are likely to receive above-average rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon. This includes regions across Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The forecast is based on model consensus and climatological analysis, and while seasonal variations are natural, the broader warming trend is influencing their intensity and distribution.
These findings are further echoed in the WMO’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025–2029). The agency reports an 80% probability that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will surpass 2024 as the warmest on record. Moreover, there is an 86% likelihood that global average temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels during at least one year in the same period. While crossing the 1.5°C threshold temporarily does not mean the long-term goal of the Paris Agreement has been breached, it does indicate the increasing proximity to it.
For South Asia, which depends heavily on monsoon rainfall for agriculture, water resources, and livelihoods, these projections raise important questions. Above-normal precipitation can support crop yields and groundwater recharge, but it also increases the risk of floods, landslides, and infrastructure strain – especially in urban areas like Dhaka, Karachi, Kathmandu, and Colombo.
In recent years, countries across the region have already faced erratic monsoons – ranging from delayed onset to concentrated rainfall over short periods, leading to flash floods. While these new forecasts do not guarantee extreme weather events, they reinforce the need for preparedness.
The WMO has urged governments and stakeholders to strengthen early warning systems, invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, and enhance regional coordination. “It is essential to scale up investments in climate adaptation,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo in the agency’s May 2025 release. “Extreme weather and climate-related disasters are increasing, and the poorest communities are the most affected.”
Adaptation is particularly urgent for agriculture, which remains a primary livelihood source for millions in South Asia. A misaligned or overly intense monsoon can wipe out entire harvests, jeopardizing food security. The region’s densely populated flood-prone zones also require upgraded drainage, flood management, and health systems to withstand the effects of prolonged or high-intensity rainfall.
It’s important to note that these projections do not represent certainties – they indicate probabilities based on current models and past observations. However, in a region where seasonal shifts have direct impacts on lives and economies, even probabilistic information becomes crucial for risk planning and public policy.
As South Asia moves into the 2025 monsoon season, climate preparedness remains key. The science is increasingly clear: the region is entering an era where “average” monsoons may no longer look like they did in the past. Policymakers, communities, and regional agencies will need to read the signs early, respond swiftly, and build systems that are not only reactive but resilient.
Source: https://wmo.int/media/news/above-normal-rainfall-forecast-southwest-monsoon-asia